The Real Impact of Today’s NDIS Reform Announcement
What it means for families, communities, and the future of support in Australia
Today’s announcement from Mark Butler at the National Press Club has left many in our community sitting with more questions than answers.
While the messaging centres on “securing the NDIS for future generations,” the reality for families, providers, and communities—particularly in regional and remote areas—is far more complex.
This is not just policy.
This is people’s lives, support systems, and futures.
A System Under Pressure — But Who Bears the Weight?
We heard today that:
There are now 740,000 participants on the NDIS
Around 5.5 million Australians live with disability
And over the next decade, an additional 160,000 people are expected to miss out on accessing the scheme
At the same time, it was acknowledged that 15 out of 16 providers are currently unregistered, raising ongoing concerns about quality, oversight, and sustainability across the sector.
These numbers highlight something important:
The NDIS was never designed to carry the full weight of disability support in Australia.
But the alternative systems are not yet ready—or equitable enough—to fill that gap.
Foundational Supports vs. “Thriving Kids” — A Critical Clarification
One of the most confusing and evolving parts of today’s announcement is the relationship between foundational supports and the Thriving Kids program.
Initially, many of us understood these as:
Two separate systems
Foundational supports → broader, community-based supports
Thriving Kids → a targeted early intervention pathway
However, based on today’s messaging, we are now beginning to understand:
They may in fact be one and the same.
This shift is significant.
The Thriving Kids program, now confirmed to begin 1 July 2027 (previously expected later), appears to sit within—or be delivered through—the foundational supports system, rather than alongside it.
What This Means for Children and Families
We heard that:
Children aged 0–9 with developmental delay
And those with mild to moderate autism
…will increasingly be steered away from the NDIS and into these foundational supports.
For many families, this was already a source of concern.
But today, that concern has grown.
Because alongside this shift, we also heard a stronger emphasis on:
Access to the NDIS requiring clear evidence of permanent and significant functional impairment—not just diagnosis
A Growing Fear: Who Stays, and Who Is Removed?
Families are now asking a much bigger question:
Is this just about new entrants… or could people already on the scheme be removed?
There is a very real and growing concern that:
Participants may be reassessed against stricter functional criteria
Those who are “doing well” with support may no longer meet thresholds
And individuals across all age groups—not just under 9s—could be impacted
This creates a deeply concerning paradox:
The very supports that have helped someone regulate, communicate, participate, and thrive…
May now make it harder to “prove” they need support at all.
We know that:
Many neurodivergent individuals mask their needs for safety
Functional challenges are often context-dependent and fluctuating
Progress is often because of support—not evidence that support is no longer needed
The Risk of Removing Support Too Early
For families who have:
Fought for years to access the NDIS
Navigated complex systems
Finally built safe, trusting support networks
The idea of losing that support is not just stressful—it is destabilising.
And the broader implications cannot be ignored.
If participants are removed from the scheme without strong, accessible alternatives:
We risk creating:
A mental health crisis, with increased distress and burnout
Reduced economic participation, as individuals and carers step away from work
Increased social isolation, particularly for those already marginalised
The Hidden Impact: Social and Community Participation
Another critical concern is the reduction in social and community participation supports.
These supports are often misunderstood—but they are essential.
They are what allow people to:
Build relationships
Develop confidence
Engage in their communities
Be seen, included, and valued
Without them, inclusion becomes theoretical—not lived.
If these supports are reduced or removed:
We are not just changing budgets. We are reducing opportunities for belonging.
Are Communities Ready to Fill the Gap?
The reform assumes that foundational and mainstream systems will step in.
But we must ask—honestly and urgently:
Are they ready?
Because right now:
Communities are not ready
Schools are not resourced or trained adequately
Early childhood services are already stretched
Hospitals and health systems are under pressure
And in regional and remote areas: Many of these services simply do not exist in the way they are being described.
When asked about workforce shortages in these areas, the response was to “leverage existing services and staff.”
But:
👉 You cannot stretch a system that is already at capacity without consequences.
What Are “Foundational Supports” in Practice?
The announcement referenced supports such as:
Telehealth-based early intervention programs
Medicare-funded allied health sessions
A proposed Medicare item for developmental assessments
Parenting information platforms (e.g., Raising Children, Carer Gateway)
Playgroups and early childhood supports
School-based programs and resources
Community hubs and centres
These supports already exist in some form. Some are expected to receive additional resourcing.
But families know:
👉 Access to these supports is inconsistent
👉 Availability is limited
👉 And suitability varies greatly
Especially in regional WA and similar areas, these supports are:
Hard to access
Under-resourced
Not designed to meet complex or ongoing needs
The Risk of Fragmentation
We are moving toward a system where support is split across:
NDIS (for some)
Foundational supports (for others)
State-based systems (still being developed)
Health and education systems (already under pressure)
Without strong coordination, this creates:
👉 Gaps
👉 Confusion
👉 Delays
👉 And ultimately, people falling through the cracks
A Regional Reality That Cannot Be Ignored
From a regional perspective, these reforms raise urgent concerns:
How will foundational supports be delivered where services don’t exist?
How will workforce shortages be addressed meaningfully?
How will equity be ensured across Australia?
Because currently:
Access is not equal
Opportunity is not equal
Outcomes will not be equal unless this is addressed directly
What Needs to Happen Next
If these reforms are to succeed, we need:
1. Real Investment in Community Infrastructure
Not just concepts—but services that physically exist and are accessible
2. Workforce Development That Matches Demand
Including regional incentives, training pathways, and support for local providers
3. True Co-Design
With families, neurodivergent individuals, and people with disability & lived experience voices at the centre
4. Protection of Continuity of Care
Ensuring people can:
Stay with trusted providers
Maintain consistent supports
Avoid disruption and regression
A Final Reflection…
We understand the need for sustainability.
We understand the need for reform.
But sustainability cannot come at the cost of:
Access
Equity
Safety
Human dignity
Right now, families are not just processing a policy announcement.
They are trying to understand what this means for their child.
Their future.
And the supports they rely on every day.
And while reform may be necessary— Communities are not ready to do this alone.
We’re Here to Support You
As this continues to unfold, our commitment remains the same:
To provide clear, accessible information
To advocate for neuroaffirming, person-centred supports
To support families, educators, and communities to navigate these changes together
You are not alone in this.
